Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 10 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
2 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest <1 km from here.
This alert expired on 17 September 2026 at 00:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is one of only 4 we have recorded within 20 km of this point since 20 August 2026. The last comparable one was on 20 August 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 16 at 4:37PM MST until September 16 at 5:45PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ
Urban PEI: 70,320 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 20 August 2026
- September 16, 2026 · score 32 · 0.0 km
- September 17, 2026 · score 32 · 10.2 km
How we know
2 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 32 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 32 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.86/1 |
| Coordinates | 35.2931, -112.0707 |
| Nearest City | Flagstaff (40 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 70.3K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-16T23:37:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.30f8c48000068c06aaba772f24ec5bfce2a5a589.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-16T23:37:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-16T23:48:52.808Z. Material modification: 2026-09-16T23:54:34.206Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-16T23:54:34.206Z · data_change
Index 32 → 32; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Maricopa, AZ; Yavapai, AZ; Coconino, AZ and 3 more areas |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 16 at 4:37PM MST until September 16 at 5:45PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-16T17:45:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Phoenix AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 11 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.30f8c48000068c06aaba772f24ec5bfce2a5a589.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.47b8fa0b29126703530355fdb8617dad35f48fda.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f8910cbe309ce0c72b74c4bb5718f9dadb8b8738.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0ddf8ef1e52a7a5b8723131b747b22890af08ab8.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b0617e5dff14e194ac7ee360395442a6853b5566.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e5eb0e9513a8ff4eb4d4353c3fa85eafb7599c44.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1489f9072be3941bf03748323f1e957fbf3d1d65.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d5c67af468480d00397181bf7d9708018ac309c6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.84816bcbdc75009de6f9a008f2eeebe9c524b6de.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c18cb7075eb849637cfb506a243a4e5713a95ecf.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e7c70f062c3a1925a54e3114d5133e77564e67e6.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | F |
| Iem City | 3 N Slide Rock |
| Iem County | Coconino |
| Iem State | AZ |
| Iem Wfo | FGZ |
| Iem Remark | West Fork Oak Creek stream gauge reported a 3.89 ft/1662 cfs rise in 30 minutes. Occurred in response to heavy rainfall over the Pocket Fire Scar. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_F_34.990_-111.750_1789596000000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1789596000000,"latitude":34.99,"longitude":-111.75}] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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